Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0189…cab8 sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$10,282 (+9%) realized +$11,406 · open −$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate66%267W / 136L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$1,123
14 days+$2,191
30 days+$2,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,767
politics 16% +$8,835
other 3% +$287
finance 2% −$37
world 1% +$72
crypto 0% −$47
culture 0% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +4.2% -5.7% 89% 36% -6.4%
≤30d 99 -6.2% -15.1% 82% 28% -6.1%
≤90d 264 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 45% +1.0%
all 403 -0.8% -10.2% 66% 48% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 48% -0.3%
10% -18.8% 42% -9.9%
15% -26.7% 36% -18.6%
20% -33.9% 27% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$126 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$2,960
Realized+$11,406
Unrealized−$440
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses267 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions5
Markets (closed)403 / 408
History coverage124d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $900 $895 −$5 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 84¢ $900 $874 −$26 (-3%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $907 +$293 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,804 +$132 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $607 −$607 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $906 −$906 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $300 +$8 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $301 +$56 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $902 +$56 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $885 +$9 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $902 +$66 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $901 +$46 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $907 +$326 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $902 +$68 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $819 +$38 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $602 +$65 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $606 +$290 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,524 +$146 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,010 +$457 +45%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$136 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,103 +$119 +11%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $201 +$34 +17%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $405 +$12 +3%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $402 +$74 +18%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $202 +$115 +57%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $303 +$163 +54%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $501 +$31 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $202 −$202 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $301 −$301 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $300 +$6 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $603 +$103 +17%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $501 +$33 +6%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $551 +$17 +3%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $150 +$7 +5%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $402 +$88 +22%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $300 +$11 +4%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $301 +$25 +8%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $351 +$22 +6%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $302 −$302 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $704 −$704 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $300 +$10 +3%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $302 +$73 +24%
Fiji vs. Vanuatu: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $150 +$8 +5%
Fiji vs. Vanuatu: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $155 +$4 +2%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $402 +$76 +19%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $358 +$10 +3%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $300 +$15 +5%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $251 +$30 +12%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $350 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $303 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $303 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $301 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $300 4h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 8h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 8h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 8h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $301 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $301 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $301 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $302 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $302 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $302 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 16h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 33h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 33h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 33h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 33h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,960.18 · official $2,960.18 (match) · 2169 history records