Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0189…5861 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,128 (-25%) realized −$1,111 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$312
sports 48% −$892
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -36.2%
≤30d 7 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -36.2%
≤90d 7 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -36.2%
all 7 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 29% -36.2%
10% -31.8% 29% -42.3%
15% -38.4% 29% -47.9%
20% -44.4% 14% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$348 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized−$1,111
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $295 $288 −$8 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $677 −$35 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $493 −$19 -4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$93 +152%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $770 −$755 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $796 −$780 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,110 +$460 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $299 49m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 50m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 51m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $453 52m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $472 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $473 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $493 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 28¢ $189 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $204 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $152 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $154 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $61 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $770 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $796 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,570 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,110 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.80 · official $428.00 (match) · 16 history records