Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0188…afc3 crypto 397 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (352 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$705 (+1%) realized +$524 · open +$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%196W / 517L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day352.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10,844
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (352 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 520 -74.7% -77.1% 14% 13% -38.1%
≤30d 713 -49.2% -54.1% 27% 27% -23.3%
≤90d 713 -49.2% -54.1% 27% 27% -23.3%
all 713 -49.2% -54.1% 27% 27% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover352.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.1% 27% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -58.4% 26% -30.6%
15% -62.5% 24% -37.3%
20% -66.1% 21% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$98 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized+$524
Unrealized+$181
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses196 / 517
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)713 / 397
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$239
Trades / day352.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 713 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 55¢ 90¢ $289 $471 +$181 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $334 −$334 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $237 −$237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $298 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.71 · official $328.71 · 3500 history records