Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0186…2429 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+15%) realized +$151 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%41W / 71L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$164
14 days+$182
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$54
sports 26% +$102
other 26% +$112
finance 4% +$8
weather 2% −$16
economics 2% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +55.6% +40.8% 55% 55% +111.3%
≤30d 28 +16.6% +5.5% 39% 39% +49.9%
≤90d 112 -13.4% -21.7% 37% 35% +5.8%
all 112 -13.4% -21.7% 37% 35% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 35% +5.8%
10% -29.2% 33% -4.4%
15% -36.0% 30% -13.6%
20% -42.3% 27% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses41 / 71
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)112 / 120
History coverage62d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $110 $125 +$15 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 60¢ 56¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 72¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 46¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$66 +325%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$65 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$7 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$44 +695%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 26 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 26 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 15 $5 +$18 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 11 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 11 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 11 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 11 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 11 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 08 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? May 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 04 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $121 +$75 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 57m
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 55¢ $19 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 36¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $10 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 16h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $80 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.75 · official $354.76 (match) · 320 history records