Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0183…5442 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$60 (+27%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$36
politics 3% +$6
other 2% −$1
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 35% +15.0%
≤30d 37 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 35% +15.0%
≤90d 37 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 35% +15.0%
all 56 -34.5% -40.8% 32% 30% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 30% +8.5%
10% -46.4% 23% -1.9%
15% -51.6% 21% -11.4%
20% -56.3% 16% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage141d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$65 +324%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in February? Feb 03 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 03 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $4 −$3 -84%
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Ann Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $1 +$3 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $14 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records