Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0182…34ea crypto 823 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$377 (+7%) realized +$373 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%484W / 706L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day230.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$350
14 days−$637
30 days−$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$287
world 4% +$347
other 2% $0
politics 1% +$7
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 -82.5% -84.2% 6% 4% -41.0%
≤30d 1190 -26.2% -33.2% 41% 34% -19.0%
≤90d 1190 -26.2% -33.2% 41% 34% -19.0%
all 1190 -26.2% -33.2% 41% 34% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 34% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 25% -26.8%
15% -45.4% 17% -33.9%
20% -50.8% 11% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$373
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses484 / 706
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1190 / 823
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day230.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $25 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+50%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 25¢ 17¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+20%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 28¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 478 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$2 -170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$2 -276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 18 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$3 -335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -436%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$5 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 32¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 25¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $21 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.18 · official $81.98 (match) · 3500 history records