Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0182…9d3e crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$155 (-5%) realized −$170 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%4W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$104
other 22% −$108
crypto 18% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -52.8% -57.3% 17% 17% -23.0%
≤30d 24 -52.8% -57.3% 17% 17% -23.0%
≤90d 24 -52.8% -57.3% 17% 17% -23.0%
all 24 -52.8% -57.3% 17% 17% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.3% 17% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -61.4% 8% -30.4%
15% -65.1% 4% -37.1%
20% -68.5% 4% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$33 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 20
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $303 −$72 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $303 −$35 -12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $10 −$3 -27%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$15 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$43 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $94 −$40 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$20 -63%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $201 +$59 +29%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $598 +$132 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$30 -48%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $20 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $284 −$116 -41%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $506 −$21 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$7 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 52¢ $231 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $12 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 14m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 18m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $268 31m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 49m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 49m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 49m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 3¢ $8 58m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $44 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $303 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $121 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.53 · official $257.14 · 57 history records