Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0180…b8cd sports 1262 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$8,996 (-6%) realized −$9,386 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%508W / 752L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$58
14 days−$95
30 days−$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$8,967
sports 46% −$316
crypto 1% −$52
world 1% +$58
economics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +0.5% -9.0% 49% 49% -10.1%
≤30d 223 -1.9% -11.2% 43% 41% -14.7%
≤90d 557 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 38% -16.5%
all 1260 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 39% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 39% -15.1%
10% -22.6% 38% -23.2%
15% -30.1% 36% -30.6%
20% -37.0% 33% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$86 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$9,386
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses508 / 752
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1260 / 1262
History coverage238d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $95 $140 +$45 (+47%)
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Hurricanes 32¢ 46¢ $96 $139 +$42 (+44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
1H Spread: Clippers (-1.5) Clippers 54¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $463 $0 −$463 (-100%)
1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5) Pistons 52¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 44¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Racing Club de Lens 37¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
1H Spread: 76ers (-2.5) 76ers 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline Lakers 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Thunder 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Felix Auger-Aliassime 53¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Arthur Rinderknech 63¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$21 -18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $86 −$70 -81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $141 −$22 -15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 +$65 +139%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $98 +$49 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$42 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$22 -79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $119 +$58 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$19 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $149 −$147 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 14 $50 −$45 -90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 +$28 +103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$23 -23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $190 −$28 -15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $94 −$38 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $186 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $251 +$54 +22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $199 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $210 −$208 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $303 +$106 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 −$56 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$39 -79%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $261 +$328 +126%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $216 −$215 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $153 −$94 -61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $199 +$39 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $76 +$78 +103%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$37 +74%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $99 +$90 +91%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$23 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $72 +$55 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$167 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$19 -46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $98 −$76 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $29 +$18 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $50 +$94 +188%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $50 +$36 +72%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 32¢ $98 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $97 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 33¢ $96 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $67 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $29 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 50¢ $116 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $86 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $62 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $112 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $47 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $147 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $98 6h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $98 6h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 56¢ $56 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 3¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 13¢ $28 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $177 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $119 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $119 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 83¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $48 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.38 · official $215.69 · 2364 history records