Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
01 0x017d…3892 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+17%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$26
sports 27% $0
world 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 60% +9.5%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 60% +9.5%
≤90d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 60% +9.5%
all 15 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 60% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 60% +9.5%
10% -23.8% 60% -0.9%
15% -31.1% 47% -10.5%
20% -37.9% 27% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 41¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $5 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 41¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.68 · official $32.53 (match) · 26 history records