Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x017c…222d
other · 68 markets active 105d ago
0.0score
−$3,272 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,272 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage429d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%
Chart Positions 0 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 May 22 $1 +$4 +426%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $2 $0 +25%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 03 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 03 $24 −$24 -97%
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 01 $45 −$34 -76%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 24-31? Feb 01 $227 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 01 $46 −$25 -54%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31? Jan 31 $913 −$412 -45%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 24-31? Jan 30 $569 +$119 +21%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $50 −$44 -88%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $50 −$44 -88%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $11 −$8 -75%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $50 −$41 -81%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $50 −$39 -78%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $100 −$65 -65%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $150 −$86 -57%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? Jan 27 $50 −$28 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 27 $158 −$19 -12%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $542 −$542 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $155 −$120 -77%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 24-31? Jan 24 $1 $0 +20%
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30? Jan 24 $1 $0 -49%
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference? Jan 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 24 $11,740 −$1,436 -12%
Doge ETF approved in 2025? Jan 24 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Jan 24 $3 $0 -11%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 24 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24? Jan 24 $717 +$121 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 24 $569 +$236 +42%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24? Jan 22 $84 +$7 +8%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24? Jan 22 $2,003 −$601 -30%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 20 $1 $0 +7%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Jan 20 $1 $0 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 20 $5 −$2 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 63% −$1,538
other 32% −$1,996
crypto 4% +$260
world 0% $0
sports 0% +$3
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 107d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 107d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 107d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 24¢ $1 107d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 107d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 107d
Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 488d
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 490d
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 494d
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 494d
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 494d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 494d
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 495d
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 495d
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 495d
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 495d
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 495d
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 495d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +426.3% +376.2% 100% 100% +376.2%
≤90d 1 +426.3% +376.2% 100% 100% +376.2%
all 68 -25.7% -32.8% 35% 25% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 25% -25.3%
10% -39.2% 13% -32.4%
15% -45.1% 9% -39.0%
20% -50.5% 6% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 548 history records