Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x017c…f8ef crypto 710 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+2%) realized +$44 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%232W / 477L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$101
weather 36% +$151
other 6% −$27
sports 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 38% 38% +10.8%
≤30d 490 -17.0% -24.9% 27% 26% -14.1%
≤90d 709 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 31% -11.7%
all 709 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 31% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 31% -11.7%
10% -26.9% 26% -20.1%
15% -34.0% 21% -27.8%
20% -40.5% 18% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses232 / 477
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)709 / 710
History coverage82d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $133 +$51 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$62 +145%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $23 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$17 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 26 $1 +$4 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $148 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.00 · official $53.90 · 2001 history records