Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x017b…3577 tech 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$3
politics 29% −$7
tech 20% +$43
sports 9% −$1
economics 8% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +2.1% -7.7% 31% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$596) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage203d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 12 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 12 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $995 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Apr 14 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Apr 14 $597 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $112 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $112 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $106 +$6 +6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $60 +$2 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $414 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $71 +$4 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $52 +$18 +35%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $47 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 4h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 4h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 5h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 5h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 7h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $105 7h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $105 8h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $105 28d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $982 36d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $984 36d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $984 36d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $986 36d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $984 36d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $986 36d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $986 36d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $988 36d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $989 36d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $991 36d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $989 36d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $991 36d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $993 36d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $995 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $110 58d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $592 64d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $592 64d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $592 64d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $594 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records