Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0176…6357 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
other 29% $0
economics 10% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
world 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage111d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $99 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $101 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 05 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $98 14h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $98 2d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $99 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $99 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $99 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $99 24d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 32d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 34d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $99 36d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $99 36d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 99¢ $99 40d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $100 41d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $100 45d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 45d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 64d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 65d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $101 68d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $44 69d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $57 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $101 72d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $101 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $101 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 77d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $101 86d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 86d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $101 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records