Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x0176…a02e sports 391 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+4%) realized +$61 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%197W / 178L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$0
14 days−$25
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$72
other 7% −$16
crypto 2% −$14
world 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 39% -9.4%
≤30d 228 -0.5% -10.0% 51% 47% -11.4%
≤90d 375 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 49% -7.1%
all 375 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 49% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 49% -7.1%
10% -18.6% 40% -16.0%
15% -26.5% 33% -24.1%
20% -33.7% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses197 / 178
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions16
Markets (closed)375 / 391
History coverage58d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 59¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 19¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 47¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will England be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +344%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 +$1 +18%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $1 $0 +42%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$7 +177%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $7 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 39h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 40h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $1 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 47¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.88 · official $19.88 (match) · 1038 history records