Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x0170…2c42 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$200 (-12%) realized −$268 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$50
politics 29% −$255
crypto 3% +$5
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.4% +0.8% 100% 100% +0.8%
≤30d 1 +11.4% +0.8% 100% 100% +0.8%
≤90d 2 -44.3% -49.6% 50% 50% -11.6%
all 14 -63.7% -67.2% 29% 21% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.2% 21% -51.4%
10% -70.3% 0% -56.0%
15% -73.2% 0% -60.3%
20% -75.8% 0% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$31 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$1,205
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)14 / 22
History coverage599d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $231 $281 +$50 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $236 $208 −$28 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $174 $191 +$18 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $137 $179 +$42 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $105 $112 +$7 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $131 $101 −$30 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $76 $86 +$9 (+12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $48 +$5 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $20 −$11 -54%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? Nov 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden Nov 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 06 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100 +$21 +21%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Nov 06 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? Oct 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $53 2h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 65d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 65d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $48 69d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $82 69d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $105 69d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $131 69d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $137 69d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $174 69d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $231 69d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $236 69d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 581d
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 582d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 582d
Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 590d
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 590d
Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 590d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 590d
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? SELL Yes 88¢ $117 590d
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 591d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 61¢ $46 591d
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? BUY Yes 75¢ $99 597d
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 597d
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden BUY Yes 27¢ $30 597d
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden BUY Yes 2¢ $8 597d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY No 70¢ $100 598d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 598d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.97 · official $1,204.97 (match) · 110 history records