Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x0167…225c
sports · 272 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$51 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$51 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses148 / 120
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)268 / 272
History coverage100d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 4 History 268 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 44¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $8 +$7 +93%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $4 +$6 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $3 +$2 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +109%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $4 +$6 +140%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $3 +$1 +55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $3 +$1 +55%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$2 +70%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 May 23 $4 +$6 +129%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $3 +$1 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 May 23 $3 +$2 +76%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $2 +$3 +140%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 22 $4 +$4 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 21 $2 +$2 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $21 +$9 +46%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 20 $3 +$2 +97%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $2 +$2 +100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert May 19 $4 +$1 +31%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $4 +$1 +24%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$12
other 17% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $2 13m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $2 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 39m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 21h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $2 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $3 29h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $3 2d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $3 2d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 44¢ $2 2d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $3 2d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 70¢ $4 2d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 70¢ $4 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 39¢ $2 4d
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 57¢ $3 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $3 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.9% -18.4% 45% 45% -13.6%
≤30d 78 +4.9% -5.1% 56% 55% -0.6%
≤90d 262 +5.5% -4.5% 55% 55% -3.7%
all 268 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 54% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 54% -4.6%
10% -14.0% 54% -13.8%
15% -22.3% 50% -22.1%
20% -29.9% 46% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.29 · official $11.29 (match) · 629 history records