Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$750	$0	−$750 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$56	$0	−$56 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	90k	15¢	0¢	$3,008	$0	−$3,008 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	Jan 06	$3,008	−$3,008	-100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	Dec 21	$10,000	−$2,669	-27%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?	Dec 17	$56	−$56	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	Oct 30	$1,488	−$647	-44%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?	Oct 10	$750	−$750	-100%
Pavel Durov released in August?	Aug 28	$22,004	+$37,085	+168%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 59% +$37,085

politics 27% −$2,669

crypto 12% −$3,655

world 2% −$750

economics 0% −$56

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	BUY 90k	10¢	$1,008	521d
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	BUY 90k	21¢	$2,000	522d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	SELL No	4¢	$7,331	537d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?	BUY Yes	3¢	$56	541d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	BUY No	5¢	$948	562d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	BUY No	5¢	$9,052	562d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	0¢	$8	589d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	1¢	$113	589d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	2¢	$131	589d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	2¢	$143	589d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	1¢	$67	591d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	1¢	$118	591d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	1¢	$143	591d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	SELL Yes	2¢	$120	591d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,488	591d
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?	BUY Yes	24¢	$750	609d
Pavel Durov released in August?	SELL Yes	99¢	$59,089	652d
Pavel Durov released in August?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10,980	653d
Pavel Durov released in August?	BUY Yes	31¢	$3,130	654d
Pavel Durov released in August?	BUY Yes	36¢	$6,016	654d
Pavel Durov released in August?	BUY Yes	44¢	$1,878	654d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-48.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	6	-43.0%	-48.5%	17%	17%	+67.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-48.5%	17%	+67.8%
10% ← realistic here	-53.4%	17%	+51.7%
15%	-57.9%	17%	+37.1%
20%	-62.0%	17%	+23.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.