Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
01 0x0160…a702 other 11 markets active 10d ago coverage 214d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,734 (-27%) realized −$7,734 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,596per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$7,885
30 days−$7,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$6,039
sports 7% −$1,845
crypto 1% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% -34.8%
≤90d 6 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% -34.8%
all 11 -38.7% -44.5% 18% 18% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 18% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 9% -41.0%
15% -54.7% 9% -46.7%
20% -59.1% 0% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,809 vs −$1,285 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,734
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage214d
Avg bet$2,596
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9,592 −$9,538 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,027 −$62 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,025 −$56 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8,742 +$970 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,094 +$2,647 +43%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,889 −$1,845 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12AM ET Nov 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 11 $42 −$13 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 11 $53 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 10? Nov 10 $63 −$10 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,911 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $964 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $969 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $7,653 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $9,711 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $8,737 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,741 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 10d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,889 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $62 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3,028 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,989 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12AM ET BUY Up $28 222d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $28 222d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 222d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? SELL Yes 15¢ $42 222d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 223d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 223d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 10? SELL Yes 83¢ $54 223d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $63 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records