Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x015e…6d75 other 138 markets active 3h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$19
politics 33% −$15
sports 12% +$73
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 136 +0.4% -9.2% 10% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×15.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage128d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $285 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $297 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $287 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $273 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $261 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $238 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $443 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $409 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $262 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $215 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $185 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $195 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $430 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $31 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 36h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 46h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $38 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 16d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $252 26d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $252 26d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $261 27d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $261 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $263 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.97 · official $57.97 (match) · 408 history records