Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x015b…5bfb crypto 1294 markets active 2h ago coverage 727d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$742 (-3%) realized −$774 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%679W / 607L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$83
14 days−$88
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% −$495
crypto 32% −$362
other 2% −$132
sports 1% −$63
world 1% +$137
politics 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -1.5% -10.8% 59% 35% -4.2%
≤30d 360 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 46% -13.3%
≤90d 1098 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 46% -12.9%
all 1286 -5.6% -14.6% 53% 46% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 46% -13.1%
10% -22.8% 39% -21.4%
15% -30.2% 37% -29.0%
20% -37.1% 35% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

727d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$774
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses679 / 607
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1286 / 1294
History coverage727d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $110 $184 +$74 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? No 83¢ 99¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? No 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$79 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $67 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 −$20 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$24 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $81 −$30 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$46 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$90 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $88 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$49 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$31 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$42 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $51 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 45h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $41 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 8¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $94 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.87 · official $389.87 (match) · 2821 history records