Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x015a…99d0 crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 385d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,766 (-4%) realized −$2,763 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%77W / 122L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 385d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$5,101
sports 2% −$242
other 1% +$162
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +8.3% -2.0% 39% 39% -2.3%
≤30d 36 +11.4% +0.8% 42% 42% +6.5%
≤90d 37 +13.3% +2.5% 43% 43% +8.1%
all 199 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 36% -12.8%
10% -21.8% 32% -21.1%
15% -29.3% 30% -28.7%
20% -36.3% 28% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$133 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$2,763
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses77 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions13
Markets (closed)199 / 212
History coverage385d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 56¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Noir Esports 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-18? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Atlanta Dream 50¢ 49¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 33¢ 32¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$33 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$57 +442%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $25 +$30 +119%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$76 +596%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $9 +$13 +146%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $67 +$145 +216%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $32 +$29 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 29 $32 −$32 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 29 $68 −$66 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $28 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 18 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 19 $593 −$593 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 19 $568 +$71 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 6 at 5P Aug 06 $80 +$120 +149%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 6 at 5P Aug 06 $34 +$24 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on August 6 at 5P Aug 06 $44 −$31 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 1AM ET Aug 06 $29 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12AM ET Aug 06 $18 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8PM ET Aug 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3PM ET Aug 05 $18 +$18 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1PM ET Aug 05 $36 +$34 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2PM ET Aug 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 6 at 5PM ET? Aug 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12PM ET Aug 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 33¢ $26 1h
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 50¢ $25 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $25 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $25 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $25 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $25 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $25 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 1h
Will Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 28h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Noir Esports 50¢ $25 28h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 39¢ $25 28h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $13 28h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 43¢ $25 28h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 54¢ $25 28h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $25 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $25 28h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $25 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 43¢ $25 2d
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $25 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $25 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.02 · official $284.02 (match) · 707 history records