Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0157…a97e sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$246 (+7%) realized +$204 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%32W / 33L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$101
14 days+$278
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$22
other 34% +$252
crypto 2% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 48% -6.0%
≤30d 65 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 49% -1.1%
≤90d 65 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 49% -1.1%
all 65 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 49% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 49% -1.1%
10% -18.6% 49% -10.6%
15% -26.5% 48% -19.2%
20% -33.7% 45% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$40 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses32 / 33
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 75
History coverage9d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 94¢ $53 $94 +$41 (+77%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 62¢ $59 $63 +$4 (+6%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $125 +$69 +55%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $57 −$56 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 +$37 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 +$48 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$55 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$34 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $62 +$40 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$58 +129%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$45 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 +$37 +226%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $54 +$48 +90%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $85 −$84 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $69 +$32 +46%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $62 +$90 +145%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$43 +80%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $14 +$15 +107%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$72 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $29 +$21 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$46 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $56 +$46 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 +$33 +48%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $57 +$45 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $26 18m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $48 19m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $60 21m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $54 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $194 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $34 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $125 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $45 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $57 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $16 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $53 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 34h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $51 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $62 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $27 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $53 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $28 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $54 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $47 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 17¢ $19 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 17¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $98 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.95 · official $268.95 · 115 history records