Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0156…8bbb crypto 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$414 (-11%) realized −$390 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%73W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$231
14 days−$256
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$550
other 3% −$29
sports 3% −$35
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -27.0% -33.9% 44% 34% -25.4%
≤30d 162 -23.9% -31.2% 45% 38% -25.5%
≤90d 162 -23.9% -31.2% 45% 38% -25.5%
all 162 -23.9% -31.2% 45% 38% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 38% -25.5%
10% -37.8% 28% -32.6%
15% -43.8% 19% -39.1%
20% -49.3% 13% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$390
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses73 / 89
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage23d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 48¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $41 −$15 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$15 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$34 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $32 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$7 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$11 +208%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$1 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$6 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$13 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$6 -18%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$11 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$3 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$5 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$30 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$7 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$9 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$25 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$4 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$27 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$2 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 48¢ $12 20m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $16 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.26 · official $12.02 (match) · 480 history records