Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0154…30f7 sports 1288 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,243 (-2%) realized −$1,023 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%652W / 630L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,222
other 5% +$417
crypto 1% −$39
politics 0% −$17
world 0% −$16
economics 0% −$10
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -69.5% -72.4% 22% 15% -10.8%
≤30d 94 -53.0% -57.4% 30% 24% -9.4%
≤90d 1282 -6.0% -14.9% 51% 46% -10.7%
all 1282 -6.0% -14.9% 51% 46% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 46% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 38% -19.2%
15% -30.5% 29% -27.0%
20% -37.3% 22% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$1,023
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses652 / 630
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1282 / 1288
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $15 +$11 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$23 +226%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 +$13 +26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $478 +$11 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $596 +$64 +11%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $55 −$10 -18%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$15 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$9 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $456 −$5 -1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $421 +$32 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $396 +$28 +7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $326 +$69 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Alex Hernandez Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Shanker Heisnam vs Adam Bajurko Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Arjun Rathi vs Yash Chaurasia Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. SD Eibar: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Istanbul: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Istanbul: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Yannick Alexandrescou Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Tallon Griekspoor Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Zagreb: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Elmer Moeller Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Pelham: Katrina Scott vs Paola Lopez Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Maxine Kammerer vs Emma Martellenghi Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $504 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $201 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 98¢ $478 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 79¢ $50 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $15 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 9¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $660 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $596 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 3¢ $1 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 42¢ $10 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 58¢ $12 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Katie Boulter 63¢ $0 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 47¢ $10 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Katie Boulter 46¢ $11 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 41¢ $10 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 53¢ $13 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 40¢ $10 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 22¢ $11 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 19¢ $10 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 22¢ $3 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 19¢ $3 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $539 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.08 · official $526.16 (match) · 3500 history records