Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x0153…bad3 sports 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,533 (+27%) realized +$1,536 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%87W / 101L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$54
14 days+$33
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$274
other 14% +$1,570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 39% -8.8%
≤30d 69 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 30% -6.7%
≤90d 188 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 31% +15.1%
all 188 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 31% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 31% +15.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 23% +4.1%
15% -28.2% 19% -6.0%
20% -35.2% 11% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$7 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,536
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses87 / 101
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage81d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $8 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $124 −$34 -28%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $56 −$18 -32%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $6 −$4 -66%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $16 +$15 +96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $93 −$7 -8%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $48 +$17 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $42 +$24 +59%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $100 −$20 -20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $26 −$5 -18%
Counter-Strike: DXA Esports vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 11 $54 +$10 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $135 −$23 -17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $97 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $16 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $143 −$11 -8%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $19 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $11 +$4 +31%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $112 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $26 +$9 +33%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $38 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $73 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $110 −$33 -30%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $57 +$22 +38%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Pl Jun 09 $42 −$10 -24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $213 +$103 +48%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $4 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 26 $83 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe May 26 $17 −$5 -31%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag May 26 $37 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 26 $26 −$4 -16%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gr May 26 $65 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CIS LAN Champio May 26 $81 −$5 -6%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions May 26 $136 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C May 25 $30 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Bebop (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio May 25 $141 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gro May 25 $126 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 25 $37 −$4 -11%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 25 $1 +$1 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 37¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 37¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 60¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 59¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 44¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 44¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 69¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 69¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 46¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 43¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 43¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 48¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 63¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 65¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 46¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 42¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 74¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 62¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 55¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 43¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 71¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L BUY Eternal Fire Academy 26¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY Ursa 65¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 SELL Ding Cuts 26¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2375 history records