Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
01 0x0152…c82a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-14%) realized −$464 · open +$324
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$49
crypto 20% −$13
sports 17% +$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -16.3%
≤30d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -16.3%
≤90d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -16.3%
all 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 25% -16.3%
10% -19.3% 25% -24.3%
15% -27.1% 25% -31.6%
20% -34.3% 25% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$71 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized−$464
Unrealized+$324
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage16d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $168 $492 +$324 (+193%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $335 −$163 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $184 +$151 +82%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $197 −$13 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $115 −$37 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $171 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $172 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $335 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $92 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $92 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $92 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $92 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $79 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $78 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $115 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $118 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.06 · official $452.49 · 28 history records