Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x0152…b455
sports · 782 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,995 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,916 · open −$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$121
Realized−$3,916
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses370 / 410
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions2
Markets (closed)780 / 782
History coverage130d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 780 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$854
7 days−$633
14 days−$938
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 50¢ 53¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Over 50¢ 8¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Rockets 45¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Lakers 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) Lakers 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Jazz (-4.5) Jazz 47¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Rockets 51¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Suns (-8.5) Pacers 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Lakers (-13.5) Jazz 50¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 228.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 232.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Suns vs. Bucks Bucks 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Wizards 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Nuggets 50¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-14.5) Celtics 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 11 $562 −$554 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $51 +$56 +109%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5) Jun 09 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 09 $51 +$47 +92%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 09 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 09 $51 +$51 +101%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 06 $51 +$51 +101%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 Jun 05 $51 +$42 +83%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $102 +$99 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 04 $508 +$513 +101%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5 Jun 03 $507 −$500 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5 Jun 03 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $81 +$85 +105%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 03 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 03 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 03 $30 +$27 +90%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-13.5) May 26 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) May 26 $51 +$42 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) May 25 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $30 +$31 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5 May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $507 +$473 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 22 $305 +$320 +105%
Spread: Seattle Storm (-1.5) May 21 $61 +$62 +102%
Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5) May 21 $61 +$55 +90%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $132 +$26 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $51 +$56 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $51 +$51 +101%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 May 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $30 +$33 +109%
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 May 19 $30 +$30 +97%
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 May 19 $30 +$26 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$3,995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $102 51m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 22h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 22h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) BUY PortlandFire 50¢ $102 22h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY PortlandFire 45¢ $102 22h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 49¢ $258 25h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 49¢ $305 25h
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 50¢ $51 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 50¢ $51 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $51 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 3d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 4d
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 45¢ $51 4d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 49¢ $51 4d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5) BUY Washington Mystics 48¢ $51 4d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $51 4d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) BUY Washington Mystics 51¢ $51 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 6d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Under 49¢ $203 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Under 49¢ $305 8d
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 9d
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 9d
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 49¢ $406 9d
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 51¢ $406 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 50% -48.7%
≤30d 68 +20.3% +8.8% 60% 60% -6.3%
≤90d 583 -7.5% -16.3% 46% 43% -18.1%
all 780 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 44% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 44% -15.9%
10% -22.8% 44% -23.9%
15% -30.3% 43% -31.3%
20% -37.1% 42% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.00 · official $121.00 (match) · 1529 history records