Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0152…be0f crypto 1326 markets active 5h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$861 (+3%) realized +$861 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate75%998W / 328L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$259
14 days+$230
30 days+$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$609
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.2% -6.6% 95% 5% -5.2%
≤30d 211 +3.2% -6.6% 93% 13% -7.0%
≤90d 528 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 29% -7.1%
all 1326 +1.8% -7.9% 75% 61% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 61% -7.9%
10% -16.7% 9% -16.7%
15% -24.8% 7% -24.7%
20% -32.2% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$861
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses998 / 328
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1326 / 1326
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1326 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $112 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $112 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $131 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $153 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $326 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $69 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $185 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $73 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $299 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $86 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $87 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $167 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $158 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $145 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $74 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $352 +$31 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $165 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $296 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $77 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $150 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $71 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $164 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $200 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $69 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $87 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $89 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $69 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $78 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $112 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $82 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $112 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $85 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $97 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $91 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $87 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $109 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $79 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $53 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $78 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $80 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $67 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $86 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $112 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $109 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $80 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $69 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $109 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $76 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $110 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $94 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records