Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x014f…d2e1 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$65 (+26%) realized +$83 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$72
politics 25% −$16
economics 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+73.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -82.3% -84.0% 0% 0% -46.8%
≤90d 13 +91.5% +73.2% 15% 15% +27.8%
all 13 +91.5% +73.2% 15% 15% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.2% 15% +27.8%
10% +56.7% 15% +15.6%
15% +41.5% 15% +4.4%
20% +27.6% 15% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +108% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$10 · ×9.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage39d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-45%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 09 $52 −$6 -12%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $5 +$55 +1053%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 +$119 +1141%
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $10 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 40¢ $46 13d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 31d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $5 31d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $5 33d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $5 33d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 33d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes $5 35d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes $11 35d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $5 37d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 38d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes $5 38d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $8 38d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $10 38d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $10 38d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $129 38d
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 38d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 43¢ $52 39d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $10 39d
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes $10 39d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.58 · official $61.58 (match) · 47 history records