Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x014f…8b4d other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 438d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$424 (-35%) realized −$445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$299
other 11% −$72
sports 5% −$56
crypto 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-66.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -53.2% -57.7% 20% 20% -66.0%
≤30d 5 -53.2% -57.7% 20% 20% -66.0%
≤90d 5 -53.2% -57.7% 20% 20% -66.0%
all 9 -62.5% -66.0% 22% 11% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.0% 11% -42.6%
10% -69.3% 11% -48.1%
15% -72.3% 11% -53.1%
20% -75.0% 0% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$69 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage438d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea South Korea 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Puerto Rico 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -91%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 +$8 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$4 -14%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $79 −$75 -95%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Jun 02 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $692 +$28 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 45h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $79 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 2d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico BUY Puerto Rico 50¢ $35 92d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 13¢ $20 93d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 4¢ $40 415d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 416d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 4¢ $216 418d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 4¢ $226 419d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 4¢ $87 422d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 4¢ $87 423d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 426d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 428d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 5¢ $343 429d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 5¢ $200 431d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 4¢ $99 433d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 26¢ $245 436d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 33¢ $53 437d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 31¢ $29 437d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.97 · official $1.97 (match) · 26 history records