Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x014e…3794 politics 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$918 (+2%) realized +$655 · open +$263
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate78%142W / 39L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$7,756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$45
14 days+$181
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$516
politics 27% −$309
world 25% +$506
economics 4% +$64
culture 3% +$87
sports 2% +$35
crypto 1% +$11
tech 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.7% +8.3% 100% 33% -0.2%
≤30d 22 +4.1% -5.9% 91% 27% -2.4%
≤90d 67 -3.7% -12.9% 81% 21% -9.4%
all 181 +8.1% -2.2% 78% 25% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 25% -7.7%
10% -11.5% 12% -16.5%
15% -20.1% 4% -24.6%
20% -27.9% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$40 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$7,756
Realized+$655
Unrealized+$263
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses142 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions40
Markets (closed)181 / 221
History coverage347d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,579 $1,587 +$8 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $550 $607 +$57 (+10%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $350 $402 +$52 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $350 $362 +$12 (+3%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $300 $361 +$61 (+20%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 91¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $245 $211 −$34 (-14%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 87¢ 100¢ $108 $124 +$16 (+15%)
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 92¢ 99¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $301 +$24 +8%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $33 +$15 +45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $360 +$37 +10%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $60 +$16 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $120 +$71 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $200 +$60 +30%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $200 +$8 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $80 −$56 -70%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $203 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $200 +$41 +20%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $390 +$9 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $300 +$5 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $201 +$19 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $461 +$12 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $552 −$62 -11%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 10 $50 +$8 +16%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $200 +$41 +20%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 02 $152 −$150 -99%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? May 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $100 +$7 +7%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? May 01 $317 +$17 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $485 +$65 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 21 $20 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $200 +$7 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $4 $0 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 20 $500 +$28 +6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $100 −$41 -41%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $300 +$5 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Apr 12 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 12 $100 +$4 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 08 $200 −$18 -9%
Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? Apr 08 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 06 $200 −$66 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $157 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $60 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 84¢ $101 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $357 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $561 23h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $116 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 3d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $204 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $70 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 5d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $100 5d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $397 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $140 7d
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $180 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $300 9d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $206 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $100 11d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 11d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 11d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $308 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,755.73 · official $7,754.93 (match) · 757 history records