Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x014c…38cc sports 531 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,747 (+9%) realized +$3,771 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%296W / 224L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$553est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,511
7 days+$1,881
14 days+$1,263
30 days+$1,456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,174
other 2% −$96
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +36.2% +23.3% 61% 61% +24.9%
≤30d 194 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 55% -2.1%
≤90d 520 +8.6% -1.8% 57% 57% -2.3%
all 520 +8.6% -1.8% 57% 57% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 57% -2.3%
10% -11.2% 57% -11.6%
15% -19.7% 56% -20.2%
20% -27.6% 49% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$73 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1,326
Realized+$3,771
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses296 / 224
Est. fees paid−$553
Open positions11
Markets (closed)520 / 531
History coverage60d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 54¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 62¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Lillestrøm SK vs. Viking FK: O/U 3.5 Over 76¢ 48¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$102 +100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$90 +89%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $255 +$234 +92%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$30 +59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $153 +$222 +144%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$47 +92%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $153 +$166 +108%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $51 +$65 +128%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$77 +151%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $51 +$116 +227%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$125 +122%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$199 +386%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $153 +$188 +122%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$127 +248%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 +$90 +89%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$48 +47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$60 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 +$101 +99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $154 +$359 +233%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $204 +$167 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$98 +96%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$40 +78%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +108%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$71 +138%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$77 +151%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$231 +151%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $204 +$231 +113%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$68 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$65 +128%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$90 +89%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 59m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 59m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $205 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $205 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $204 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $204 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $102 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $102 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $51 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $61 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 30¢ $51 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 43¢ $51 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $102 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $205 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $204 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $51 28h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,325.54 · official $1,325.54 (match) · 1212 history records