Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x014c…820c
other · 402 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$235,010 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$292,095 · open −$52,109
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$645,300
Realized+$292,095
Unrealized−$52,109
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses126 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$2,564
Open positions198
Markets (closed)208 / 402
Avg bet$7,273
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 198 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$626
7 days−$6,201
14 days+$40,865
30 days+$19,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $66,312 $68,970 +$2,658 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $39,739 $67,596 +$27,857 (+70%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $48,058 $49,336 +$1,279 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $46,342 $47,920 +$1,579 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $44,240 $45,374 +$1,134 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $41,175 $43,151 +$1,976 (+5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 83¢ 52¢ $54,617 $33,715 −$20,902 (-38%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 78¢ 81¢ $20,035 $20,636 +$601 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 96¢ 93¢ $16,495 $16,071 −$424 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15,702 $15,735 +$33 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $12,404 $12,859 +$454 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $39,739 $11,882 −$27,857 (-70%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $11,345 $11,408 +$63 (+1%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 79¢ 81¢ $9,193 $9,466 +$273 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 57¢ 57¢ $9,222 $9,187 −$35 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $8,247 $8,258 +$11 (+0%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 76¢ 60¢ $10,023 $7,936 −$2,087 (-21%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $6,759 $7,235 +$477 (+7%)
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 71¢ 72¢ $6,210 $6,259 +$49 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $5,938 $6,236 +$298 (+5%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 92¢ 90¢ $6,186 $6,033 −$153 (-2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $6,150 $5,863 −$287 (-5%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 89¢ 78¢ $5,813 $5,039 −$773 (-13%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 92¢ 90¢ $4,600 $4,475 −$125 (-3%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $4,340 $4,431 +$91 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 12 $8,830 +$72 +1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 12 $46 +$32 +71%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $401 −$203 -51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $912 +$66 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $32,373 +$305 +1%
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title? Jun 11 $399 +$255 +64%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10,052 −$1,575 -16%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $171 +$35 +20%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $1,670 +$537 +32%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3,831 −$151 -4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 09 $1,576 +$104 +7%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $3,449 −$3,390 -98%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $731 −$731 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 08 $1,928 −$1,928 -100%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 07 $49 −$47 -96%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 07 $4,558 +$45 +1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $5,177 +$237 +5%
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 06 $807 +$101 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 06 $7,855 +$34 +0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $1,897 −$1,897 -100%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $11,906 +$300 +2%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $5,301 +$147 +3%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $55 −$51 -93%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 03 $9,200 +$115 +1%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 03 $100 +$161 +162%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 02 $692 +$1 +0%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 02 $215 −$215 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $45 −$45 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $137 −$137 -100%
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $640 −$9 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 02 $3,454 +$36 +1%
Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 01 $73 +$37 +51%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $2,017 −$219 -11%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $2,916 +$139 +5%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $2,143 +$319 +15%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $5,974 +$174 +3%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $5,131 +$359 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $14,035 +$8,571 +61%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $37,209 +$37,928 +102%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $10,185 +$471 +5%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $2,704 +$49 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $3,336 +$650 +20%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $726 −$28 -4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 29 $9,798 +$333 +3%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $9,072 −$9,068 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 28 $9,675 +$103 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% −$30,771
other 28% +$28,403
sports 16% +$155,518
tech 8% +$4,139
economics 5% +$73,472
world 1% +$2,908
crypto 1% +$6,231
culture 0% +$138
finance 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 20¢ $475 28m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $998 30m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $25 30m
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL Yes 18¢ $78 32m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 96¢ $678 35m
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 14¢ $198 36m
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 93¢ $648 38m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $8 42m
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2,001 44m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 43¢ $605 47m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $6 6h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 23¢ $22 6h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 23¢ $7 6h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 24¢ $471 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 4¢ $216 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $126 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $213 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $126 6h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 7h
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,005 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,131 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $25,517 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $114 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $168 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $76 9h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $3,284 9h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 79¢ $41 9h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 79¢ $98 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,513 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.0% -21.3% 63% 26% -16.1%
≤30d 104 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 21% -5.2%
≤90d 208 +10.6% +0.0% 61% 25% +15.6%
all 208 +10.6% +0.0% 61% 25% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 25% +15.6%
10% -9.5% 16% +4.6%
15% ← realistic here -18.3% 14% -5.5%
20% -26.3% 12% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645,299.94 · official $645,298.19 (match) · 3500 history records