Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x0149…9bc0 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$477 (+22%) realized +$426 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$587
other 5% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +10.3%
≤30d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +10.3%
≤90d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +10.3%
all 10 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 50% +10.3%
10% -20.3% 40% -0.2%
15% -28.0% 30% -9.9%
20% -35.1% 20% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$58 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$426
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 80¢ 100¢ $200 $251 +$51 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $204 +$135 +66%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $999 +$421 +42%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$123 +121%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $102 −$4 -4%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $102 +$20 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $102 −$3 -3%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $84 +$27 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.23 · official $251.23 (match) · 23 history records