Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0148…da32 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-16%) realized −$45 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$42
weather 38% +$4
sports 17% −$5
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -23.7% -31.0% 38% 33% -27.5%
≤30d 25 -22.7% -30.1% 40% 32% -26.9%
≤90d 38 -18.6% -26.3% 55% 21% -25.4%
all 38 -18.6% -26.3% 55% 21% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 21% -25.4%
10% -33.4% 21% -32.5%
15% -39.8% 21% -39.0%
20% -45.7% 21% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)38 / 54
History coverage68d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage InterActive Philippines 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Roar Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK 65¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Roar Gaming 62¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 60¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 67¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 57¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Yakult Brothers 56¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Roar Gaming 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 11? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 18 May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 18? May 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 15 Apr 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 14? Apr 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 14? Apr 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 12? Apr 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 09 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 09 $67 +$6 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $1 1m
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $1 11m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 63¢ $1 27m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 53¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 60¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $1 2h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 67¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 53¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY RisingRage 62¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 84¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Infinite 44¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 65¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $1 13h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $1 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $1 14h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 53¢ $1 15h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 99¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.52 · official $19.52 (match) · 87 history records