Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0146…ad2a politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 41% −$19
sports 6% +$101
world 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +2.0% -7.7% 5% 4% -9.5%
all 125 +4.2% -5.7% 10% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 10% -9.4%
10% -14.7% 8% -18.1%
15% -23.0% 6% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×13.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage116d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $255 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $527 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $653 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $670 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $246 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $309 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $242 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 10 $313 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $286 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $294 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $342 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $299 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $301 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $588 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $333 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $330 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $308 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $351 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $324 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $50 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $50 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $309 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $309 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $255 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $255 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $242 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $242 31d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $273 31d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $273 33d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 33d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 33d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $321 33d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $321 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $300 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $300 34d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $233 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.97 · official $54.97 (match) · 371 history records