Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
01 0x0145…35d0 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,538 (-3%) realized −$2,523 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%103W / 48L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$528per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$690est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$3,319
14 days−$3,737
30 days−$3,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,793
crypto 0% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.8% -16.5% 71% 63% -42.5%
≤30d 146 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 66% -12.6%
≤90d 146 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 66% -12.6%
all 151 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 64% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 64% -12.6%
10% -22.0% 47% -21.0%
15% -29.6% 25% -28.6%
20% -36.5% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$576) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$400 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,523
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses103 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$690
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage212d
Avg bet$528
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $169 +$16 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $150 +$20 +13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $127 +$20 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $238 +$81 +34%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $166 +$72 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $77 +$24 +30%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $75 +$17 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $57 +$18 +31%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $38 +$12 +30%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $150 +$40 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $121 +$30 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $97 +$24 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 +$25 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $179 −$177 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $208 −$202 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $353 +$33 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $545 +$35 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $407 +$139 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $348 +$59 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $290 +$57 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $231 +$59 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $154 +$77 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $112 +$42 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $206 −$204 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $330 +$56 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3,473 −$3,324 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $151 +$52 +34%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,475 +$885 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $509 −$506 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $365 +$144 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$4 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $297 +$63 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$58 +58%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $202 +$101 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,908 +$615 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,504 +$140 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $293 +$121 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,299 +$492 +38%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,144 +$208 +18%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $246 +$52 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $15 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $186 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $169 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $169 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $150 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $15 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $146 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $127 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $319 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $238 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $238 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $166 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 34h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $75 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $57 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $38 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $39 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $150 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $150 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $121 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $121 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 314 history records