Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0143…239a other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,482 (+35%) realized +$4,487 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$721
7 days+$662
14 days+$842
30 days+$915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$158
other 38% +$852
tech 15% −$142
finance 2% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -42.0% -47.5% 38% 23% -2.7%
≤30d 21 -20.0% -27.6% 52% 38% -1.3%
≤90d 21 -20.0% -27.6% 52% 38% -1.3%
all 21 -20.0% -27.6% 52% 38% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -1.3%
10% -34.6% 29% -10.7%
15% -40.9% 19% -19.4%
20% -46.7% 10% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$91 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$4,487
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage24d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Jun 26 $328 −$81 -25%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 26 $203 −$79 -39%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? Jun 26 $149 −$126 -85%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $200 −$197 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,216 +$1,154 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $1,450 +$44 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $2,663 +$171 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $200 +$41 +20%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$27 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $500 +$258 +52%
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $161 −$130 -81%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $47 +$12 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$14 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $150 +$55 +37%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $90 +$19 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $50 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 15m
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $248 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 39¢ $124 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? SELL Yes $23 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $239 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $45 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $10 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $49 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $9 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $10 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $46 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $82 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $9 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $10 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $10 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $50 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $100 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $9 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $8 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $294 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $245 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.20 · official $96.20 (match) · 266 history records