Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0142…35bd politics 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$14
politics 37% −$15
sports 8% +$1
tech 3% $0
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -1.3% -10.7% 7% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×5.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage131d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $805 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $382 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $204 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $407 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $421 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $190 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $194 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $228 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $172 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $588 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $404 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $429 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $209 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 6h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 9h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 15h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $174 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $174 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 24d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $255 26d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $255 27d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $204 27d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $204 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $261 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 29d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 29d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $175 30d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $175 30d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $230 31d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 31d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 408 history records