Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x0142…b168 sports 317 markets active 4d ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-3%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%164W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$82
14 days−$35
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$344
other 31% +$172
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -64.0% -67.5% 14% 14% -84.2%
≤30d 36 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -6.7%
≤90d 36 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -6.7%
all 317 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 45% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 45% -12.4%
10% -17.6% 39% -20.8%
15% -25.6% 35% -28.4%
20% -32.9% 31% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses164 / 153
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)317 / 317
History coverage180d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 317 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +249%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $6 +$4 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$5 +109%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +197%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $5 +$8 +165%
Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran Jun 04 $5 +$5 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$5 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $5 +$5 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $5 +$7 +134%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $5 +$4 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $5 +$7 +140%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $3 +$1 +43%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $5 +$7 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges May 24 $5 +$11 +216%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club end in a draw? Jan 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? Jan 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $31 −$28 -90%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) Jan 13 $37 −$6 -17%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $14 −$5 -36%
ASB Classic: Hamad Medjedovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jan 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche Jan 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Adelaide International: Victoria Mboko vs Anna Kalinskaya Jan 13 $5 +$5 +100%
ASB Classic: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Jan 13 $5 +$4 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $5 6d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Rinky Hijikata 33¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $5 8d
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 35¢ $4 8d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 57¢ $6 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $5 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $5 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $5 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $5 12d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran BUY Tuncay Duran 57¢ $5 12d
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi BUY Arda Azkara 46¢ $5 12d
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Taro Daniel 37¢ $5 13d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $5 13d
Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran BUY Tuncay Duran 51¢ $5 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $5 13d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $5 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $5 14d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $5 15d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $5 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $5 16d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 708 history records