Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0141…4c36 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+3%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$124
sports 6% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 92% 42% -14.6%
≤30d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 92% 42% -14.6%
≤90d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 92% 42% -14.6%
all 12 +4.0% -5.9% 92% 42% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 42% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 17% -22.7%
15% -23.1% 17% -30.2%
20% -30.7% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$225 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $226 −$225 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $175 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $121 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $165 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $91 +$38 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records