Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x013c…8072 crypto 49 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-43%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$89
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -18.5% -26.3% 22% 18% -51.1%
≤30d 49 -18.5% -26.3% 22% 18% -51.1%
≤90d 49 -18.5% -26.3% 22% 18% -51.1%
all 49 -18.5% -26.3% 22% 18% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 18% -51.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 18% -55.8%
15% -39.8% 18% -60.1%
20% -45.7% 18% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +118%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +104%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$28 +536%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$7 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$25 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 2d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records