Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0137…20e5 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-3%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 29% -13.3%
≤30d 31 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 29% -13.3%
≤90d 31 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 29% -13.3%
all 31 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 29% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 29% -13.3%
10% -21.3% 16% -21.6%
15% -28.9% 13% -29.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$14 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $46 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records