Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0134…ea74 crypto 787 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,797 (-18%) realized −$4,792 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%367W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$258
14 days−$333
30 days−$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -3.0% -12.2% 48% 47% -19.6%
≤30d 112 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 42% -28.8%
≤90d 702 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -22.4%
all 785 -3.1% -12.3% 47% 45% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 45% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 44% -29.3%
15% -28.4% 41% -36.2%
20% -35.4% 39% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4,792
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses367 / 418
Open positions2
Markets (closed)785 / 787
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 33¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$5 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$6 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$16 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$54 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$52 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$29 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$72 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$21 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$14 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$57 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$40 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $98 +$87 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.32 · official $7.30 · 3500 history records