Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0130…d0f8 crypto 189 markets active 9h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$306 (+12%) realized +$230 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%107W / 73L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$63
14 days+$180
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$270
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +15.3% +4.4% 59% 59% -0.5%
≤30d 128 +11.9% +1.3% 63% 63% +0.3%
≤90d 180 +7.4% -2.9% 59% 59% -1.1%
all 180 +7.4% -2.9% 59% 59% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 59% -1.1%
10% -12.2% 59% -10.6%
15% -20.7% 59% -19.2%
20% -28.4% 58% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses107 / 73
Open positions15
Markets (closed)180 / 189
History coverage43d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? No 54¢ 99¢ $40 $74 +$33 (+82%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? No 60¢ 99¢ $40 $67 +$27 (+66%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 57¢ 92¢ $40 $65 +$24 (+61%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? No 57¢ 52¢ $54 $49 −$5 (-10%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 20? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 52¢ 99¢ $13 $26 +$12 (+91%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? No 59¢ 52¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 60¢ 100¢ $13 $22 +$9 (+65%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? No 60¢ 47¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $13 $19 +$5 (+40%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Yes 52¢ 59¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 21? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 22? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 0¢ 82¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Yes 53¢ 4¢ $27 $2 −$25 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 10? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 8? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $28 +$22 +80%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $42 +$29 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$24 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$18 +65%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 18 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$23 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$11 +79%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$20 +83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$18 +66%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$21 +67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$14 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$5 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$6 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$14 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$17 +70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$10 +62%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$9 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$14 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 11 $32 −$31 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$10 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$20 +83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$15 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$5 +61%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$20 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $16 +$12 +77%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 +$15 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$6 +81%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$5 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 21? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? BUY No 59¢ $28 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 20? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 57¢ $55 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 22? BUY Yes 49¢ $14 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? BUY No 50¢ $28 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 60¢ $28 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 57¢ $42 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? BUY No 60¢ $42 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $28 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $14 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 62¢ $14 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 54¢ $42 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $28 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $28 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $42 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 52¢ $28 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.64 · official $436.35 (match) · 300 history records