Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0130…fb49 politics 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$27,619 (+74%) realized +$28,429 · open −$810
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate68%69W / 32L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$553per market
Trades / day139.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$20,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,439
7 days−$1,331
14 days−$1,977
30 days−$3,392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 33% −$714
other 27% −$1,465
politics 14% −$893
world 13% −$230
culture 8% +$196
tech 5% −$638
sports 0% −$111
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+72.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +79.7% +62.6% 80% 33% -25.1%
≤30d 101 +90.5% +72.4% 68% 36% -31.1%
≤90d 101 +90.5% +72.4% 68% 36% -31.1%
all 101 +90.5% +72.4% 68% 36% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.4% 36% -31.1%
10% ← realistic here +55.9% 28% -37.7%
15% +40.8% 23% -43.7%
20% +27.0% 21% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +71% → late +110% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$155 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$20,484
Realized+$28,429
Unrealized−$810
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses69 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions446
Markets (closed)101 / 68
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$553
Trades / day139.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 446 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 96¢ 100¢ $6,305 $6,553 +$247 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? No 60¢ 99¢ $1,736 $2,857 +$1,120 (+65%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No 40¢ 100¢ $788 $1,970 +$1,182 (+150%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,589 $1,634 +$45 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,035 $1,058 +$23 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat? No 91¢ 91¢ $801 $801 +$0 (+0%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 65¢ 66¢ $644 $657 +$13 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 87¢ 98¢ $530 $600 +$70 (+13%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 26¢ 31¢ $431 $505 +$74 (+17%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 60¢ 63¢ $424 $441 +$17 (+4%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 90¢ 92¢ $223 $230 +$7 (+3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 73¢ 74¢ $205 $209 +$4 (+2%)
James Norton announced as next James Bond? No 84¢ 99¢ $149 $175 +$26 (+18%)
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-1%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 66¢ 76¢ $128 $146 +$18 (+14%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 28¢ 32¢ $113 $127 +$13 (+12%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 58¢ 78¢ $94 $127 +$33 (+35%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? No 76¢ 99¢ $96 $125 +$30 (+31%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $7 $118 +$111 (+1500%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 90¢ 92¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? No 98¢ 100¢ $83 $85 +$1 (+2%)
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? No 83¢ 85¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 18¢ 26¢ $55 $80 +$25 (+46%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 20¢ 55¢ $26 $70 +$45 (+175%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 21¢ 18¢ $74 $65 −$9 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? Jun 17 $4 +$37 +958%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Apri Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +222%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun Jun 17 $0 $0 +61%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$137 -30707%
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April Jun 17 $0 $0 +270%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 30-34 seats in the Slove Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Vance Bostic win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primar Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,215,000 and $1,250,0 Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? Jun 17 $0 $0 +23%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,285,000 and $1,320,0 Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Michele Boldrin win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +351%
Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in March? Jun 17 $0 $0 +61%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$173 -34200%
Will "The Bad Guys: The Series" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Raw: 2026 - March 23, 2026" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2 and 2.25 million views in the fi Jun 17 $0 $0 +132%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$7 +1573%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr Jun 17 $0 $0 +12%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 1 be between 2,600,0 Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Don Hodgson win the by-election for the seat of University—Roseda Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 17 $0 +$12 +3866%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April? Jun 17 $0 $0 +64%
Will Brad Sherman win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary electi Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3 Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,320,000 and $1,355,0 Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will The White House be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on A Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" be the top US Netflix movie thi Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will Eddie Andrews win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will Serena Purdy win the by-election for the seat of University—Rosed Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 17 $0 $0 +69%
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Jun 17 $0 −$12 -7647%
Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? Jun 17 $0 −$30 -22557%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 27¢ $86 1m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 26¢ $282 1m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 27¢ $44 1m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 28¢ $19 1m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 91¢ $67 3m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $198 6m
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $7 14m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 91¢ $182 16m
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 93¢ $37 27m
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $32 29m
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL No 66¢ $45 32m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $132 36m
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL No 66¢ $154 37m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 39m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 67¢ $19 44m
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $197 57m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL No 66¢ $31 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 26¢ $7 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $16 1h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL No 66¢ $147 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 18¢ $9 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $113 1h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL No 66¢ $117 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 23¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,483.99 · official $20,448.33 (match) · 3500 history records