Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x012e…39e9 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$738per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$38
sports 17% −$4
other 17% −$4
crypto 13% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -5.2% -14.3% 76% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 3% -9.8%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$26 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage264d
Avg bet$738
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? May 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 05 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 05 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? Feb 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? Feb 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? Jan 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $3,630 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $3,633 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 13? Jan 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 13 $36 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 09 $35 $0 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $4,388 −$4 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $4,400 −$4 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 04 $4,413 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 2? Dec 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 27? Dec 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 30? Nov 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 30 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 07 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October? Oct 06 $1,975 +$100 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October? Oct 05 $100 +$11 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $1,976 −$26 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 35d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 42d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $180 119d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 133d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $25 142d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? BUY No 100¢ $25 147d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $45 148d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $28 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? BUY No 100¢ $36 157d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,626 161d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3,630 161d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,629 161d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,633 161d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $25 163d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 167d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4,384 172d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4,388 172d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $4,396 172d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $4,400 172d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4,409 172d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4,413 172d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 176d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $35 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.91 · official $94.91 (match) · 239 history records