Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x012b…c7a2 sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$13
other 21% −$5
politics 19% −$9
crypto 12% −$14
world 6% −$1
culture 4% +$1
economics 4% +$1
finance 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 159 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 132
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage163d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 21 $64 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 18 $47 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $202 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $314 $0 -0%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 15 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $252 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $375 +$1 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $197 +$1 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $325 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $503 −$1 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $51 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 03 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $64 5h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $10 12d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $10 18d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $40 18d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $40 18d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 25d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 25d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 37d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $8 60d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $48 64d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $48 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $47 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $47 64d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 64d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 65d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 65d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 65d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 65d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 65d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $52 65d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $52 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 98¢ $42 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 98¢ $42 66d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $55 66d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $55 66d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 66d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 66d
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) SELL Arsenal FC 95¢ $52 66d
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 96¢ $53 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 712 history records