Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x0129…52cd politics 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$949 (-1%) realized −$950 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%18W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,030per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$13
30 days−$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$58
other 40% −$973
sports 13% +$70
world 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -4.4% -13.5% 9% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 77 -16.5% -24.4% 9% 4% -11.4%
all 112 -0.8% -10.2% 16% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 12% -10.3%
10% -18.8% 12% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 11% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,516) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$20 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$950
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses18 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,030
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $519 $520 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,837 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,865 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $192 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,653 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $154 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,368 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $778 −$778 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,242 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,029 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,121 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,737 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,967 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $3,548 −$4 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,008 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,193 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,993 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $2,958 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,107 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $822 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $77 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $2,797 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,984 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,865 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $534 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $496 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $497 2h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $486 23h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $486 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $462 42h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $463 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $519 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $851 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $852 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $863 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $874 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $876 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $751 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $752 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $813 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $814 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $738 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $739 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $669 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $670 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $641 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $642 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $749 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $750 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $699 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $700 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $650 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.91 · official $519.91 (match) · 397 history records