Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0124…473a other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$258 (+26%) realized +$266 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$125
sports 10% +$370
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +45.3% +31.4% 50% 50% +28.8%
≤30d 6 +45.3% +31.4% 50% 50% +28.8%
≤90d 6 +45.3% +31.4% 50% 50% +28.8%
all 6 +45.3% +31.4% 50% 50% +28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.4% 50% +28.8%
10% +18.8% 50% +16.5%
15% +7.4% 50% +5.2%
20% -3.2% 17% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$71 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $194 $196 +$2 (+1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$13 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $95 +$370 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 41m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 41m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $95 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 17h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $90 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.19 · official $377.20 (match) · 17 history records